Posted on: August 8, 2010 4:45 pm
 

2010 Fantasy Football QBs target top talent?

The question facing all fantasy football players this year is if they should spend big auction dollars or an early draft pick on top QB talent. In most seasons that is a question you need to ask yourself and 2010 is no different.

There is a case to be made that there are 4 QB tiers of quality to pick from. The top 3 tiers is made up of the top 10 QBs so if you don’t want to pay to play then 11-25 should be where you are looking for your diamond in the rough. I don’t think it is the worst strategy; I call it rotisserie QB, the idea is that you grab your QB in the last few rounds or only spend a $1 or $2 in an auction and play the waiver wire each week to find a QB with a good defensive matchup to exploit. It can be a winning strategy and you can find a break out QB along the way. It allows you to focus a lot more resources on your other roster spots.

If you are committed to a higher grad QB which in my opinion there is only 9 or 10 (depending on Favre) which are any better than the rotisserie method then you got to decide how much resources your willing to commit to the position.  Now in a 10 team league everyone could get a decent QB, but in 12 team or greater sized leagues there are not enough to go around so they are a bit more of a commodity.

Let’s start at the top and work our way down according to the Fantasy Fortunes website:

  1. Aaron Rodgers $45
  2. Drew Brees $45

These two represent the most upside at the position. Rodgers is a huge part of the Packers offense which looks to be strong again this year. He throws a lot and as a bonus runs more than anyone else at the position racking up 5 running TDs last year.  I expect similar rushing numbers again and slightly worse passing.

Brees has the keys to what could be the highest scoring offense for 2010 and they are stacked with weapons. He should continue to put up huge numbers. I think he is a little safer then Rodgers.

The next step down is

3. Peyton Manning $35

Manning is a top tier QB selling at a $10 discount. His weapons are still in place and he is the model of consistency. A very safe play and he has got to be hungry after last season. The concern here is they do tend to sit him down at the end of the season hurting fantasy owners come championship week. I am not as concerned this year as I don’t think the Colts will lock up home field as fast this year. I worry about that a bit with Rodgers if Favre does not come back because without Favre the Vikings will not push the Pack to win the division.

The next QBs represent a significant tier break:

4. Matt Schaub $25

5. Phillip Rivers $21

6. Tom Brady $18

7. Tony Romo $13

These 4 are all running very good offenses. Schaub looks poised to explode though injury has been an issue. Rivers has shown he can do it and represents decent value. Brady has never been so cheap though Moss is aging, Brady at this price could be the steal of the QB field. I included Romo in this tier as I think we have him a little undervalued and his connection with Austin could make for a big season.

Our final tier of QBs that I would be willing to commit significant resources on before abandoning the position for rotisserie QB is the following:

8. Brett Favre $11

9. Donovan McNabb $10

10. Joe Flacco $9

There are clearly guys below this who are better than the waiver wire but I don’t know that they are worth what you will have to give up to get them. Favre scares me and I personally would leave him alone, though if he repeats his performance from last year someone will get great value out of him. McNabb is going into a new offense and is tough to read but he as the talent to put up good numbers. Flacco on the other hand adds Boldin and really could come into his own this year. I will be targeting him as a value play if I can get him at the right price.

What should guide your decision in selecting a QB is how many points of separation do you gain or lose picking one QB over another.  If you believe Aaron Rodgers will out score the $10-$11 QBs by 60 points then you have to decide would an extra $35 on your currently slated #2 RB give you 60 more points than the guy you would otherwise have in the #2RB slot. I would argue that at a minimum you need to get the same points of separation at QB or more. It is easier to replace a starting QB with someone who scores consistent points then it is to replace a RB with a consistent scorer. But if you think you can get quality backup RBs and still afford the top tier QBs then I say go for it because they do offer a safe place to get some good separation on your competition.

If you skip the top QBs and go rotisserie style this year be sure to check Fantasy Fortunes every week for FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) bid amounts. We will be giving advice on who to add and what to bid.

We will also be updating weekly player’s season long value with auction values to help you assess the value of your team and to evaluate trades.

Good luck with your draft or auction.

Josh Reitan

Blog Writer

Fantasy Fortunes

www.FantasyFortunes.com


Posted on: August 5, 2010 10:24 am
 
Posted on: March 14, 2010 12:18 pm
 

2010 Fantasy Football Auction Draft Values

Fantasy Football auctions have to be the most fun 2-3 hours one can spend. So much of the season rides on those decisions. The auction has so much more potential for smashing success and dismal failure then a draft does. In an auction the price for any player is set by the market and when the market is 10-12 guys pounding beers it has the potential for wild variations. Meaning you can easily extremely overpay for a player or underpay and steal a player. When you do a draft these extremes just do not exist. Sure someone can reach for a player too early and another player can fall a little ways but the peak to valley difference in a draft no way approaches that of an auction. The other great part is because everyone is on equal footing you all have the some potential for success and failure. Where in a draft you may know a player has dropped way too far but if you are still 3 picks away and you can not act on it.

So with that preamble out of the way lets look at the 2010 fantasy football auction values produced by us as Fantasy Fortunes.  The full list with player descriptions  is at the website below. These values are based on a 10 team league with everyone starting with $100.  If you are in a 12 team league take these numbers times 120% and I would also weight RB a little more heavily do to the diluted RB pool.

Atop the list is Chris Johnson $44, he finished strong and after the first several weeks was clearly the guy everyone wished they had. There is no reason to think he will not repeat next season. Every other RB has some level of baggage which Chris Johnson has none of.

Next is Adrian Peterson at $40, he is $4 less for a reason, FUMBLES. This is a major problem and MN is getting tired of it. He is still the man and has huge upside but turnovers cost them the Superbowl and Peterson gets benched when he fumbles.

The next two MJD and Ray Rice are at $35 and $34 and I think could be the steal of the auction at that price. Both should have great years and have very limited baggage. Next is Turner at $30 here is where the real baggage starts. The injury issue is a big deal but so are his TD totals. Big risk big reward potential.

I feel like there is a tier break here Frank Gore and Steven Jackson round out the top RBs at $27 and $25 both have good upside but both disappeared at times. Gore also seems to get nicked up each year.

Next we get into the WR’s we like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald at $24 and $23. Johnson gets the edge as he keeps his QB though both are animals and should produce good safe numbers.

Now we round out the 1st round of what would be a draft if your a caveman and still prefer drafting to auctions,  we have Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Jamall Charles and DeAngelo Williams all for $22-$21. All have similar upside though I think the later two have the most. They all should be safe and do well but also have the potential for big games I think one of these 4 will finish in the top 3  of RBs for 2010. I like the idea of taking 2 of these guys and if they go at these prices and still have half my discretionary money left to round out my team.

The next WR on the list is Vincent Jackson at $20. Everyone knew this guy had it in him and he finally showed it. I would not be surprised if he is the #1 WR next year. Really like him and really like him at this price.

Now we get into the $19 grab bag of WR, QB and RB we have Mendenhall, Wayne, Rodgers, Brees,  Desean Jakson, and Brandon Marshall. All with tremendous upside albeit Mendenahall. Wayne scares me a little he disappeared at the end of last season, though losing the Superbowl makes me think Wayne and Manning come out next season with an air of  “The last ride of Wyatt Earp and his immortals.” Which brings us to Manning, Austin and Moss at $18. One WR on the way up the other on the way down. The only question is who would you rather have?

The $17 level gives us Thomas Jones and Ronnie Brown. One guy who you think will get hurt (Jones) and one who is a lottery ticket winner if he does not (Brown). If your picking between these two the gambler takes Brown the guy who holds 95% bonds in his portfolio goes Jones. For me I would take Brown.

We take a $2 price drop for Calvin Johnson and Beanie Wells. Both these guys are a throw of the dice though Megatron does OK even when a Junior College transfer is throwing him the ball, the only problem is I don’t see the situation improving next year. If the Lions get a QB move him up the list. As for Wells if the job is his he could be huge. Training camp should be interesting here.

$14 will get you your choice of Moreno or Boldin to be honest they both scare me. I could see either one having a terrible season though their upside warrants this price.

Addai $13 That Superbowl may have moved him up a bit. I keep thinking ok this is his last good year. He and Thomas Jones surprise me every year.  Next is the $12 teir we have Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas and Tom Brady. I think Pierre has the most upside of the bunch but man do they throw a lot and with Bush still there I don’t like it.  This is officially the point where I will not allow myself to spend any less on my starting running backs. If I am being completely honest the lack of quality RBs in 2010 makes me sketchy about anything below the Ronnie Brown level.  Tom Brady could be a good buy here if he returns to form. I think Kevin Smith benefits as well if the Lions get a real QB.

We drop $2 again to the $10 WR bin. Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Steve Smith.  If Farve is back Rice is the best of the bunch if he is not then I like Smith the best if not only based on the Vikings game at the end of the season. He still has it and has great upside. Jennings and White scare me, I liked both of them a lot coming into 2009 and was very disappointed, with the year Rodgers had Jennings should have been a monster. Perhaps he will sync better with Rodgers next year.

$9 gets you some sexy options Matt Schaub Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. All the sudden there are so many good plays at TE. If you are forced to play a TE in your league make sure you get Clark, Gates, Gonzo, Davis or Daniels. For me personally I’ll leave Gonzo to someone else but the crop of TE is so good that you should not have to over pay: but don’t get stuck without one of the elite.

Next we get Vernon Davis as good as the others just a $1 cheaper.

The $7 pool is all over the place Ochocinco, Rivers, Daniels (amazing value), Forte and Jonathon Stewart (minus $1 for how he spells Jonathon). I really like Forte at this price. He has tremendous upside. I actually like Rivers at this price as well. I don’t advocate spending a lot on QB since you can fish the waiver wire all season and do OK but I think you get good point separation over the waiver wire strategy with Rivers.

Rounding out the list at $6 is Colston, Steve Smith, Holmes and Romo. Colston is the value of the bunch. He will go for more in your auction so if you really want him be prepared to drop $10 or more. I fear Smith will not be the best WR on the Giants next season though that might be OK I just think Nicks could be great. Holmes is all over the place some love him some hate him so he will probably go for more but I think this is the right price.  As for Romo I think the only reason he made the list was so we could make our peacock joke (see the list).

That is it. Check out the list at www.FantasyFortunes.com

Send me any feedback let me know what you think comments@fantasyfortunes.com


Posted on: March 14, 2010 12:16 pm
 

Fantasy Football in the 1980ís

I started playing Fantasy Football in 1987 I started 23 years ago when I was 10. The landscape has changed dramatically since then.

It all started when my dad had the opportunity to join a dynasty league. Two teams had not renewed and there was to be a draft to split up their players. My dad, older brother Ben and myself went to his office to conduct the draft over the phone with the other new owner. The rookies for that year had already been drafted so I remember the big prize was Vinny Testaverde. The other QB’s of note were Warren Moon and Randall Cunningham. I know I felt nervous because the stakes seemed so high. We did a coin flip over the phone which seemed to require an incredible level of trust through the eyes of a 10 year old boy. We lost the coin flip and drafted 2nd and 3rd. Testaverde went first and we eventually got both Moon and Cunningham. It worked out well for us and I have always had an affinity for Cunningham because of that early connection to him.

After that draft the three of us were totally hooked. So much so we organized another league for that same season so we could each manage our own team. It was a league that redrafted every year. Ben, my Dad and I each had our own team. I never felt so much responsibility having control of my own fantasy team. The first draft was held at our house. My dad fronted our buy in of $10 or $20. I don’t remember how much but it seemed like a lot at the time. The other players were all adults except for one guy who brought his two sons; the older of which had his own team and the younger shared with his dad. Clearly, my dad had a lot of faith in me.
To prepare for the draft my dad bought Cliff Charpentier’s Fantasy Football Digest 1987. It was a full 200+page book. It had a solid color for the front and no flashy pictures. This book was incredible to me. There was so much to learn. It was laid out by position and in the various scoring methods. We were the playing basic scoring method. Which awarded 4 points for thrown TD’s, 6 points for rushing and receiving TDs, 3 points for field goals and 1 point for extra points. That was it. No points were awarded for yards. It seems barbaric now but this was how we played and we loved it. The book was laid out by position with rankings that had tiers. Starting with the “Best of the best” and going down from there. I remember thinking this was like a text book and not to be questioned. I had one resource and I studied it hard. I remember doing countless mock drafts on my own. We did not determine draft position until the night of the draft which made preparing infinitely more difficult.
The night of the drafts were always incredibly exciting for me. The first couple years were conducted at our house and then it moved to a different owner’s business conference room which seemed extremely official. Draft position was determined by dealing cards Ace thru 9. The drama was incredible. There were pretzel sticks to be eaten like cigars and this would be the first time I had ever seen beer in my house. It was whole new world to me. It was about as much fun as preteen boy could handle.

Sundays had a whole new excitement to them. Watching the games was torture, we got 1 maybe two games at noon and of course we had no DVR. So you were at the whim of the ticker across the top of the screen and the very rare game break to gauge how you were doing. The halftime recaps were a whirlwind of information to track. I can remember begging the announcers “How did they score the third TD?” This would go on for both the Noon and 3:00 games and then we had to wait the agonizing couple hours until NFL Primetime which also launched in 1987. I have so many memories of one of my fantasy players running across the screen and hearing Chris Berman shouting “Rumbling stumbling TOUCHDOWN!!!!” The high was amazing. In some ways I miss those days. With today’s instant information that anticipation is never able to build like it did back then.
Ben and my dad took on the duties of commissioner. This was a ton of work. They learned to use a spreadsheet on our green screen Apple IIC. Lineups were called in to our house phone Saturday nights or Sunday morning with last minute calls coming in just before noon. I do remember these calls being highly annoying to my sister who could not possibly comprehend their level of importance. Official results had to wait for the box scores in the Monday morning paper. All of the sudden I was extremely excited about the newspaper and so glad we had morning delivery. I was one of the only kids in grade school who would go to the library and venture over the newspaper section. I would pour over the box scores to plan my drop and adds.
After Monday night’s game the results would be entered in the spreadsheet and printed off. We would mail them out to the rest of the league the following day. It is a testament to how much fun fantasy football is that even with what now seems like such a crude way of receiving and distributing data that we gladly went through it to play. You certainly had to be more dedicated then to have a league that endured due to the shear about of work required.
I have nothing but fond memories of playing fantasy football in the 80’s and early 90’s. I am glad it has become more accessible to the masses and has reached the popularity it is at today. There is a little piece of me though that misses waiting through the commercial breaks hoping to hear Chris Berman scream like only he can, “The Nigerian Nightmare bulldozes his way to the end zone.”

Josh
Writer
www.FantasyFortunes.com


 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com